Posted at 22 March 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•UK Feb Core CPI (YoY) 6.2%, 5.7% forecast, 5.8% previous
•UK Feb Core CPI MoM (MoM) 1.2%, 0.8% forecast, -0.9% previous
•UK Feb Core RPI (YoY) 12.9%, 12.6% previous
•UK Feb CPI (MoM) 1.1%,0.6% forecast,-0.6% previous
•UK Feb CPI, n.s.a 127.90, 126.40 previous
•UK Feb CPI (YoY) 10.4%,9.9% forecast,10.1% previous
•UK Feb RPI (YoY) 13.8%,13.3% forecast,13.4% previous
•UK Feb RPI (MoM) 1.2%,0.6% forecast,0.0% previous
•UK Feb PPI Output (MoM) -0.3%,0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•UK Feb PPI Output (YoY) 12.1%, 12.4% forecast,13.5% previous
•UK Feb PPI Input (MoM) -0.1%, 0.2% forecast,-0.1% previous
•EU Jan Current Account 17.0B, 16.5B forecast,15.9B previous
•UK Mar CBI Industrial Trends Orders -20,-15 forecast, -16 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•12:30 Canada Feb New Housing Price Index (MoM) -0.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•14:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories-1.558M forecast,-1.916M previous
•14:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.097M previous
•14:30 US Gasoline Production -0.446M previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) 1.0% forecast, 2.2% previous
•14:30 US EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -1.500M forecast,-2.537M previous
•14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -1.565M forecast,1.550M previous
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•13:45 ECB's Panetta Speaks
•16:45 EU German Buba President Nagel Speaks
•17:00 EU German Buba Balz Speaks
•17:30 Canada BOC Summary of Deliberations
•18:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.00% forecast,4.75% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - 1st Yr (Q1) 5.1% previous
•18:00 US Interest Rate Projection - Longer (Q1)2.5% previous
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro gained against dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited the outcome of the Federal Reserve policy meeting, with fears of a banking crisis fading and European Central Bank (ECB) hawks calling for more rate hikes.Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel said policy-setters must be stubborn and continue increasing borrowing costs to battle inflation, according to an interview published on Wednesday . The U.S. Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on interest rates at 1800 GMT. Investor attention globally is focused on whether the Fed will stick to its hawkish path to fight sticky inflation or pause interest rate hikes given recent trouble among banks which has included bankruptcy and last-minute rescues. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0801 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0827(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0710(5DMA a break below could take the pair towards 1.0684(38.2%fib).
GBP/USD: Sterling rose against the dollar on Wednesday after the data British inflation unexpectedly rose in February. Data showed British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February boosted expectations for a quarter point rate hike at Thursday's Bank of England meeting, lifting sterling. Economists polled had forecast that the annual consumer price inflation rate would drop to 9.9% in February from January's 10.1% and move further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1%. The increase in inflation contrasted with a fall in the U.S. CPI rate to 6.0% in the 12 months to February. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2300 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2334(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2202(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2124(38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar was little changed against the Swiss franc on Wednesday ahead of the conclusion of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with investors awaiting clarity on the path the central bank is likely to take in the wake of global banking turmoil. Markets show a quarter-point rise in U.S. rates is the most likely outcome, but investors will be keen to hear what Chair Jerome Powell says about the crisis that has rattled global banks this month and how carefully the central bank feels it needs to tread.Markets are pricing in about a 15% chance of the Fed not increasing rates, with a roughly 85% chance of a 25 basis point hike .Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9256(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9308(38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9193(23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9132(Lower BB).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against yen on Wednesday as investors' eyes turned to a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting later in the day. The spotlight was firmly on the Fed, which concludes a two-day meeting later on Wednesday. Fed is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, a decision that will land amid a brewing political storm over the U.S. central bank's oversight of collapsed Silicon Valley Bank and with the financial world hanging on the words of Fed chief Jerome Powell. Strong resistance can be seen at 133.00(Psychological level), an upside break can trigger rise towards 133.67 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 132.34(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 131.29(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks struggled for momentum on Wednesday after a tentative recovery in the past two sessions, with investors looking ahead to a crucial monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve amid turmoil in the banking sector.
At (GMT 12:12 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.12 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.50 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.32 percent.
Commodities Recap
Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday following fresh indications of weak demand, and as the market awaited a crucial interest rate decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Brent crude futures , which have risen by almost 3% this week, were down 30 cents, or 0.40%, at $75.02 a barrel at 1026 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 29 cents, or 0.42%, at $69.38.
Gold prices ticked higher but traded in a relatively tight range on Wednesday as investors hunkered down for the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,941.10 per ounce as of 1136 GMT, after dropping 2% in the previous session. U.S. gold futures edged 0.2% higher to $1,944.10.