Posted at 27 January 2023 / Categories Market Roundups
•EU Dec Loans to Non Financial Corporations 6.3%,8.6% forecast,8.4% previous
•EU Private Sector Loans (YoY)3.8%, 4.1% previous
•Italian Nov Industrial Sales (MoM) 0.90%,-0.80% previous
•EU Dec M3 Money Supply (YoY) 4.1%,4.6% forecast,4.8% previous
•Italian Nov Industrial Sales (YoY) 11.50%,12.50% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic data (GMT)
•13:30 US Dec Personal Income (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
•13:30 US Dec PCE price index (MoM) 0.1% previous
•13:30 US Dec Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 4.4% forecast, 4.7% previous
•13:30 US Dec Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.3% forecast,0.2% previous
•13:30 US Dec PCE Price index (YoY) 5.5% previous
•13:30 US Dec Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 0.5% previous
•13:30 US Dec Personal Spending (MoM) -0.1% forecast,0.1% previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan Inflation Expectations 4.4% forecast,4.0% previous
•15:00 US Dec Pending Home Sales Index 73.9 previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan Consumer Sentiment 64.6 forecast, 64.6 previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan Consumer Expectations 62.0 forecast,62.0 previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan Current Conditions 68.6 forecast,68.6 previous
•15:00 US Jan Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations 3.00% forecast, 3.00% previous
•15:00 US Dec Pending Home Sales (MoM) -0.9% forecast,-4.0% previous
•15:00 US Dec Dallas Fed PCE 3.40% previous
•16:00 Canada Nov Budget Balance -1.90B previous
•16:00 Canada Nov Budget Balance (YoY) -0.17B previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 613 previous
•18:00 US U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 771 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•17:00 EU German Buba Balz Speaks
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed against the dollar on Friday as traders braced for a critical week when the central banks responsible for the greenback, the pound and the euro will meet. The upcoming week is marked by prominent central bank meetings including the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England.The ECB will deliver 50 basis point of interest rate hikes at each of its next two meetings, according to economists polled.U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data due at 1330 GMT is also on the radar. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0930(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0990 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0863(5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0788(18th Jan low).
GBP/USD: Sterling edged lower on Friday but was not far from its highest level in over seven months against the dollar.Investors expect the British economy's slowdown to end the Bank of England (BoE) tightening cycle soon, in a move which might weaken the pound in the short-term. British private-sector economic activity fell at its fastest rate in two years in January, a survey showed on Tuesday. Some analysts flagged substantial short-sterling positioning on expectations for a turn in the BoE cycle Sterling was down 0.25% versus the greenback at $1.238. It hit its highest since June 10 at $1.2447 on Jan. 23.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2421(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2521(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2366(9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2284 (Jan 24th low).
USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Friday after a set of data highlighted a resilient U.S. economy, lifting investor sentiment ahead of next week’s slate of central bank monetary policy meetings. Investors are now awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) due at 1330 GMT will provide further clues on US inflation. At (12:23 GMT), the dollar was trading 0.28% higher at 0.9224 to the swiss franc . Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9249 (jan 25th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9277 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9198 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9165 (23.6%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar initially dipped against yen on Friday but recovered some ground as traders awaited U.S. inflation data due later in the day to gauge the Federal Reserve's likely stance on further interest rate hikes. Traders broadly expect the Fed to scale back rate hikes to 25 basis points (bps) at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 meeting, from 50 bps in December. Investors are awaiting U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, at 1330 GMT for cues on the central bank’s path forward. Strong resistance can be seen at 130.33(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 131.00 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 129.42 (9DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 128.41 (23.6%fib).
European shares edged higher on Friday as energy and materials stocks rose ahead of central bank meetings next week, while luxury goods maker LVMH hit another record high on strong sales.
At (GMT 12:23 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.05 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.03 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.07 percent.
Gold edged lower on Friday as robust U.S. economic data was seen as fodder for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates high for longer, but caution ahead of inflation data and the policy meeting next week put a floor under bullion prices.
Spot gold was down 0.2% at $1,926.09 per ounce, as of 0944 GMT, but held a relatively tight range after retreating nearly 1% in the previous session following the U.S. data.
Oil prices rose for a second session on Friday, buoyed by better than expected U.S. economic growth, strong middle distillate refining margins and hopes of a rapid recovery in Chinese demand.
Brent futures gained $1.30, or 1.5%, to trade at $88.77 a barrel by 1214 GMT. U.S. crude was up $1.27, or 1.6%, at $82.28 and on track for its highest daily jump in percentage terms for two weeks.
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