Posted at 13 April 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US March Core CPI (MoM) 0.3%,0.5% forecast,0.5%
•US Mar CPI (MoM) 1.2%,1.2% forecast,0.8% previous
•US Mar Core CPI (YoY) 6.5% ,6.6% forecast,6.4% previous
•US Mar CPI Index, n.s.a 287.50, ,287.41 forecast, 283.72 previous
•US Mar CPI (YoY) 8.5% , 8.4% forecast, 7.9% previous
•US Mar CPI (MoM) 1.2% ,1.2%,0.8% previous
•US Mar Cleveland CPI (MoM) 0.5%, 0.5% previous
•US Mar Federal Budget Balance -193.0B, -191.0B forecast,-217.0B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•03:00 China Mar Imports (YoY) 8.0% forecast, 15.5% previous
•03:00 China Mar Exports (YoY) 13.0% forecast, 16.3% previous
•03:00 China Mar Trade Balance (USD) 22.40B forecast,115.95B previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•No significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro was pinned to a five-week low on Tuesday and commodity currencies found support as prospects for peace in Ukraine darkened. Russian President Vladimir Putin described on-and-off peace negotiations as a dead-end situation overnight and Europe’s common currency, vulnerable to concern about the war’s economic fallout, dropped to $1.0821. Markets attention also shifted to the ECB policy meeting due later this week, with money markets pricing in about 70 basis points of interest rate tightening by December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0861(5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0942 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0815 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0753 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened slightly on Tuesday, hovering around the $1.30 level for its third session in a row, having shown little reaction to news that Britain’s prime minister and finance minister will receive fines for breaking lockdown rules. Britain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Finance Minister Rishi Sunak are to receive fines for breaching strict coronavirus lockdown rules.The pound was last up 0.1% on the day versus the dollar at $1.3009, having strengthened slightly throughout the day.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3015(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3056 (9DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2978 (Lower BB), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2936 (23.6%fib).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar was little changed against the greenback on Tuesday, recovering from its weakest level in nearly four weeks, as oil prices jumped and U.S. data showed a measure of underlying inflation climbing less than expected in March. Investors have been bracing for the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada to move aggressively to tamp down inflation. Canada's central bank is expected to raise interest rates by a half-percentage-point on Wednesday, its first hike of that magnitude since May 2020.The Canadian dollar was trading nearly unchanged at 1.2635 to the greenback, or 79.15 U.S. cents, after touching its weakest intraday level since March 17 at 1.2661. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2600 (Higher BB), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2684(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2603 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2564 (9DMA ).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday after data showed a jump in U.S. inflation, reinforcing expectations the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy aggressively. The U.S. Consumer Price Index showed that prices rose 8.5% in March compared with a year ago, boosted by the soaring cost of gasoline but tempered by a moderation in prices of used cars and trucks. The core CPI fell short of estimates, landing at 6.5%. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday that there were some signs of “welcome” cooling in the latest inflation readout, but emphasized that the central bank is still proceeding with a series of interest rate hikes, as well as an effort to trim its balance sheet. Strong resistance can be seen at 126.67(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 126.00 (Psychological level).On the downside,immediate support is seen at 124.80(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 124.43(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks closed lower on Tuesday amid concerns over Covid-19 shutdowns in China and the war in Ukraine. Higher bond yields weighed as well.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.55percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.48 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.28 percent.
Wall Street turned rally to sell-off on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains as impending monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve once again pulled growth stocks back into red territory.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.26 %percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.34% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.30 % percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields moved lower on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield on track for its first decline in eight sessions after a reading on inflation showed an acceleration in March, but sparked hope higher prices may have peaked.
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was down 6.5 basis points to 2.718%. The yield had earlier climbed to 2.836%, its highest since Dec. 19, 2018.
Commodities Recap
Gold advanced more than 1% on Tuesday as Treasury yields eased after U.S. inflation data largely met expectations, reducing the likelihood of long-term aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was up 0.7% at $1,967.61 per ounce by 2:39 p.m. ET (1839 GMT), having hit its highest in nearly a month earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures settled up 1.4% at $1,976.10.
Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday as lockdowns eased in Shanghai and as Russian oil and gas condensate production fell to 2020 lows and OPEC warned it would be impossible to replace potential supply losses from Russia.
Brent crude futures rose $6.16, or 6.3%, to settle at $104.64 a barrel by 1:48 p.m. EDT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose $6.31, or 6.7%, to settle at $100.60. On Monday, both benchmarks fell about 4%.