Posted at 29 October 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• Spanish CPI (YoY) -0.9%,-0.6% forecast, -0.4% previous
•Spanish CPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.2% previous
•Spanish Oct HICP (YoY) -1.0%,-0.6% forecast, -0.6% previous
•German Oct Unemployment Change -35K, -5K forecast, -8K previous
•German Oct Unemployment Rate 6.2%,6.3% forecast, 6.3% previous
•German Oct Unemployment n.s.a. 2.760M, 2.847M previous
•German Oct Unemployment 2.863M, 2.907M previous
• Italian Oct Business Confidence 95.6, 91.7 forecast, 92.1 previous
•Italian Oct Consumer Confidence 102.0, 102.2 forecast, 103.4 previous
•UK Sep BoE Consumer Credit -0.622B, 0.750B forecast, 0.300B previous
•UK Sep Mortgage Approvals 91.45K, 76.11K forecast, 84.72K previous
•UK Sep Mortgage Lending 4.83B, 3.80B forecast, 3.15B previous
•Belgium Oct CPI (YoY) 0.74% , 0.90% previous
•Belgium Oct CPI (MoM) 0.20%, -0.37% previous
•EU Oct Business and Consumer Survey 90.9, 89.5 forecast, 91.1 previous
•EU Oct Business Climate -0.74, -1.19 previous
•EU Oct Consumer Inflation Expectation 13.3, 12.5 previous
•EU Oct Services Sentiment -11.8, -14.0 forecast, -11.1 previous
•EU Oct Industrial Sentiment -9.6, -11.0 forecast, -11.1 previous
•EU Oct Consumer Confidence -15.5, -15.5 forecast, -15.5 previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•12:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 31.0% forecast, -31.4% previous
•12:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) 2.8% forecast, -2.1% previous
•12:30 US GDP Sales (Q3) -28.1% previous
•12:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q3) -33.2% previous
•12:30 US PCE Prices (Q3) -1.6% previous
•12:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q3) 4.00% forecast,-0.80% previous
•12:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 7,700K forecast, 8,373K previous
•12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims775K forecast, 787K previous
•12:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg 811.25K previous
•12:45 EU Oct Deposit Facility Rate -0.50% forecast,-0.50% previous
•12:45 EU ECB Marginal Lending Facility 0.25% previous
•12:45 EU Oct ECB Interest Rate Decision 0.00% forecast, 0.00% previous
•13:00 German Oct HICP (YoY) -0.4% forecast,-0.4% previous
•13:00 German Oct German CPI (YoY) -0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous
•13:00 German Oct HICP (MoM) 0.1% forecast,-0.4% previous
•14:00 US Sep Pending Home Sales (MoM) 3.4% forecast, 8.8% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•12:45 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•13:30 ECB Press Conference
Fx Beat
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Thursday as investors were cautious before European Central Bank meeting. Most market participants expect no change in policy at the ECB meeting, but they will be watching the central bank’s messaging closely, looking for signs it’s likely to expand its pandemic emergency bond-buying programme, which most investors expect in December. Its policy announcement is due at 1245 GMT, followed by a news conference at 1330 GMT.At 0823 GMT, the euro was down 0.2% against the dollar at $1.1694 Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1744 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1779 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1694 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1679 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Sterling declined against the dollar on Thursday as resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Europe and uncertainty ahead about the U.S. presidential elections weighed on sterling. The pound fell as much as 1% against the dollar, before recovering some losses as the day’s moves eased. In the meantime, Britain’s housing minister, Robert Jenrick, said a second national lockdown in the country is not inevitable. He added that Britain will do everything it can to avoid putting the country into a new lockdown. At 1220 GMT, it was at $1.2949, down 0.27% on the day, having fallen to as low as $1.2930 earlier Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3003 (5DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3050 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2909 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2849 (61.8%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Thursday as markets worried about Europe’s second wave of coronavirus infections and cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting. Rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates in Europe, along with caution ahead of the U.S. elections, triggered the worst market sell-off since June earlier this week.France and Germany ordered their countries back into lockdown, after Europe’s death rate jumped 37% last week. The dollar, which hit a nine-day high in the previous session, held steady overnight and strengthened further in early London trading. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9136 (50%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9173(61.8%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9093 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar declined against the Japanese yen on Thursday as markets worried about Europe’s second wave of coronavirus infections and cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s meeting. Rapidly rising COVID-19 infection rates in Europe, along with caution ahead of the U.S. elections, triggered the worst market sell-off since June earlier this week.France and Germany ordered their countries back into lockdown, after Europe’s death rate jumped 37% last week. The dollar index measured against a basket of currencies was up 0.1% on the day.Strong resistance can be seen at 104.54 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 105.05 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 104.06 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 103.84 (Lower BB).
Equities Recap
European stocks edged loweron Thursday as return to national lockdowns in some of the region’s biggest economies triggered the most brutal selloff.
At (GMT 12:30),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading down at 0.28 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.38 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.79 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold steadied in a tight range on Thursday after falling 2% the previous day as caution crept in ahead of the U.S. elections, with bullion also contending with the dollar as a refuge for investors hedging risks from mounting COVID-19 cases.
Spot gold was flat at $1,877.01 per ounce by 1028 GMT. U.S. gold futures slipped 0.1% to $1,877.60.
Oil prices fell 4% on Thursday to their lowest since mid-June, extending the previous day’s sharp decline on the potential impact renewed coronavirus lockdowns will have on oil demand.
December Brent crude futures were down $1.52, or 3.9%, at $37.60 by 1029 GMT. The more active January contract lost $1.48 a barrel to $38.16.U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.52, or 4.1%, to $35.87.