Posted at 02 February 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q4) 0.5% ,1.3% forecast, -1.2% previous
•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q4) 3.2%, 2.4% forecast,5.2% previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 224K ,213K forecast,214K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,898K ,1,840K forecast, 1,833K previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 207.75K ,202.25K previous
•US Jan Manufacturing PMI 50.7, 50.3 forecast,47.9 previous
•US Dec Construction Spending (MoM) 0.9%, 0.5% forecast,0.4% previous
•US Jan ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index 52.5, 48.2 forecast,47.1 previous
•US Jan ISM Manufacturing PMI 49.1, 47.2 forecast,47.4 previous
•US Jan ISM Manufacturing Employment 47.1,47.0 forecast,48.1 previous
•US Jan ISM Manufacturing Prices 52.9,46.0 forecast,45.2 previous
•US Natural Gas Storage-197B, -202B forecast,-326B previous
•US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q1) 4.2%, 3.0% forecast, 3.0% previous
•US Fed's Balance Sheet 7,630B ,7,677B previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•No data ahead
Looking Ahead Events and Other Releases (GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday dollar fell as investors continued to believe the Federal Reserve was getting closer to reducing interest rates, despite Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that a move in March was unlikely. Powell indicated on Wednesday that interest rates had peaked and will lower in the coming months, with inflation remaining low and employment and economic growth expected to continue.However, he refrained from declaring success in the bank's two-year inflation struggle, claim that it had achieved the desired "soft landing" for the economy, or pledge that cutbacks would be implemented as soon as the March 19-20 meeting. The dollar index was last down 0.55% at 103.04.The euro was last up 0.01% against the dollar to $1.0875.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0902(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0932( Jan 24th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0829 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0798(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound initially fell against dollar on Thursday but some recovered ground after the Bank of England held rates steady . Six out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to keep rates at a 15-year high of 5.25%. Two voted for a 0.25 percentage-point hike, while one voted for a cut of the same size.It marked the first time since August 2008 - early in the global financial crisis that different policymakers have voted to move interest rates up and down at the same meeting. Traders reduced bets on BoE rate cuts in May after the meeting. Pricing in derivatives markets last indicated roughly a 50% chance of a rate cut by May, having implied roughly a two-thirds chance before the meeting. The pound was last down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.2674, compared with $1.2635 before the decision. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency rose versus its US counterpart on Thursday, aided by a stock market rally one day after the Federal Reserve shattered hopes for an interest rate cut as early as March. Domestic data released on Thursday indicated that the industrial sector had reached a bottom. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to a seasonally adjusted 48.3 in January after falling to 45.4 in December, the lowest reading since May 2020. Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said that new developments could push inflation higher, and that would mean the central bank may still need to raise interest rates.The loonie was trading 0.4% higher at 1.3375 to the greenback, or 74.77 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3368 to 1.3464. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3417 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3467(23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3376 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3330(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday on expectation that interest cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks were coming, though not as soon as hoped for. Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday pushed back on market speculation that rates would be cut in MarchThe Fed's inflation fight got a boost on Thursday, with data showing U.S. worker productivity grew more quickly than expected in the fourth quarter to keep unit labor costs contained.Labor Department data also showed job market momentum is slowly fading, which could help to curb wage inflation. Other data showed first-time applications for unemployment benefits rose to a two-month high last week. The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.52%. The yen strengthened 0.32% to 146.42 per dollar. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.29(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.86(Jan 31st high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 146.01 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 144.98(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Thursday as losses in the lending industry outweighed gains in the technology sector, while the US Federal Reserve's warnings that an early interest rate cut was unlikely .
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.11 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.26percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.89 percent.
U.S. equities rose on Thursday as investors focused on a slew of high-profile reports and Friday's jobs data, a day after the Federal Reserve quashed lingering expectations that interest rate cut might begin as early as March.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.97% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 1.25% percent, Nasdaq settled upby 1.30% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold surged to a one-month high on Thursday as data showed that weekly unemployment claims in the United States increased last week, while the market's attention switched to non-farm payrolls data in the United States for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve's policy direction.
Spot gold was up 0.9% at $2,054.89 per ounce by 02:51 p.m. ET (1951 GMT), hitting its highest level since Jan. 3 earlier in the session.U.S. gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $2071.1.
Oil prices plummeted more than 2% on Thursday, following unsubstantiated claims of a truce between Israel and Hamas, as well as a power outage that prompted a huge US plant to shut down.
Brent crude futures dropped $1.85, or 2.5%, to settle at $78.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell $2.03, or 2.7%, to $73.82.