Posted at 31 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•German Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -1.6%, 0.7% forecast,-2.5%previous
• German Dec Import Price Index (MoM) -1.1%, -0.5% forecast,-0.1% previous
• German Dec Import Price Index (YoY) -8.5%, -8.2% forecast,-9.0% previous
• German Dec Retail Sales (YoY) -1.7%, -2.4% previous
•Swiss Dec Retail Sales (YoY) -0.8%,0.9% forecast,0.7% previous
•French Jan CPI (MoM) -0.2%,0.0% forecast,0.1% previous
•French Dec PPI (YoY) -0.90%, 0.30% previous
•French Jan French CPI (YoY) 3.1%, 3.7% previous
•French Dec French PPI (MoM) 0.1%,2.4% previous
•German Jan Unemployment Rate 5.8%,5.9% forecast,5.9% previous
•German Jan Unemployment n.s.a. 2.805M,2.637M previous
•German Jan Unemployment 2.694M ,2.703M previous
•German Jan German Unemployment Change -2K,11K forecast,5K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 US Jan ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 145K forecast,164K previous
•13:30 US Jan Texas Services Sector Outlook -8.7 previous
•13:30 US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q4)0.90% previous
•13:30 US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q4)1.0% forecast,1.1% previous
•13:30 US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q4) 1.20% previous
•13:30 Canada Nov GDP (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.0% previous
•14:45 US Jan Chicago PMI 48.0 forecast,46.9 previous
•15:30 US EIA Refinery Crude Runs (WoW) -1.377M previous
•15:30 US EIA Weekly Refinery Utilization Rates (WoW) -7.1% previous
•15:30 US Gasoline Production -1.040M previous
•15:30 US Distillate Fuel Production -0.402M previous
•15:30 US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories -2.008M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Imports -1.245M previous
•15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories -0.217M forecast,-9.233M previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• 19:00 US Fed Interest Rate Decision 5.50% forecast,5.50% previous
• 19:00 US FOMC Statement
• 19:00 US FOMC Press Conference
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Wednesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The Fed's policy decision is due at 1400 ET (1900 GMT), followed by commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is a key catalyst for the dollar and emerging markets as it will shape expectations for the timing of U.S. rate cuts. Investors have pushed back expectations of the first rate cut from March to May given evidence of resilience in the U.S. economy. On the data front, French consumer prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in January, a touch above expectations, but inflation slowed from the previous month, according to preliminary data. A separate reading showed German retail sales fell unexpectedly, by 1.6% in December. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0857(Jan 30th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0881( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound fell against a stronger dollar on Wednesday ahead of policy announcements from the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve over the next two days. Investors have reduced the odds on the degree of cut in rates expected from the BoE this year, with markets pricing approximately 100 basis points of cuts in 2024, or around four quarter-point cuts. Prior to December's inflation data, which were announced in mid-January, markets projected about five 25-basis-point drops.In comparison, markets anticipate almost 130 basis points of cuts from the Federal Reserve and over 140 basis points of easing from the European Central Bank in 2024. The pound was last down 0.2% against the dollar to $1.2671, and was on track to lose around 0.3% this month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day. The two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes later today. While the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, Chair Jerome Powell's news conference at 1930 GMT will be watched for insight into how soon Fed will cut interest rates this year. The odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have dropped to about 46% currently, from about 90% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8669(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8730(Jan 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.86003(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8532(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday as investors awaited the US Federal Reserve's policy meeting for details on the timing of interest rate cut . Investors globally have pared back expectations that the U.S. central bank would cut benchmark policy rates in March, with the first cut now forecast to come at the April 30-May 1 meeting.Market participants are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee's decision later in the day, where the central bank is expected to stand pat on its rates. The dollar index was up 0.1% to 103.51, just below Monday's 103.82 which matched last week's seven-week high. Strong resistance can be seen at 148.53(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.11 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.66(Jan 24th low).
Equities Recap
European shares gained on Wednesday, rising for the sixth straight session, on a boost from robust corporate updates, while investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision later in the day.
At (GMT 13:17 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.13 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.01 percent, France’s CAC was up by 0.15 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices are set to end the first month of 2024 in negative territory, snapping a three-month gaining streak on Wednesday, as investors reduced their expectations of early interest rate cuts this year as they await the U.S. central bank's outlook on policy rates later in the day.
Spot gold was flat at $2,036.88 per ounce by 1040 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,036.70.
Oil prices fell on Wednesday, pressured by lacklustre economic activity in leading crude importer China, but a first monthly gain since September remained in sight as flaring tensions in the Middle East heightened supply concerns.
Brent crude futures for March, which expire today, fell 87 cents, or about 1.1%, to $82 a barrel by 1103 GMT. The more actively traded April contract fell 80 cents, or about 1%, to $81.70.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 82 cents, or roughly 1.1%, to $77 a barrel.