Posted at 29 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.239%, 3.406% previous
•French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.822%,3.837% previous
•French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.687%,3.755% previous
•US Jan Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -27.4,9.3 previous
•US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.210%,5.225% previous
•US 6-Month Bill Auction 4.985%, 5.020% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Dec Unemployment Rate 2.5% forecast,2.5% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Jobs/applications ratio 1.28 forecast,1.28 previous
• 00:30 Australia Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -1.0% forecast,2.0% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
• No Events Ahead
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro initially dipped on Monday but recovered ground as investors braced for the possibility that the Federal Reserve would defy predictions of an impending rate cut when it concluded its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed is anticipated to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, and investors will pay attention to comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who hinted in December that the Fed is shifting to a rate-cutting cycle. Traders have cut odds that the U.S. central bank will reduce rates in March to 48%, from 89% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool . Traders have cut odds that the U.S. central bank will reduce rates in March to 48%, from 89% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool . Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0857(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0881( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound edged higher on Monday as caution persisted ahead of major central bank decisions. Investors are awaiting rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. While policymakers are widely expected to hold interest rates, traders will closely watch for any commentary on the potential for rate cuts. The Bank of England is likely to hint this week it is aware that the time start cutting rates is nearing, but that is unlikely to bring sterling - this year's second-best performing major currency down with it.The consensus in markets is that one or two of the monetary policy committee's hawks will stop voting for rate hikes at their meeting on Thursday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency rose to a two-week high versus the US dollar on Monday, as investor mood remained positive ahead of a Federal Reserve policy meeting this week. U.S. equities gained ahead of this week's slew of megacap results, economic data, and the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 is on course to set yet another closing high.Canada is a significant commodity exporter, especially oil, so the loonie tends to gain from the signals that equities convey about the global economy. U.S. crude oil futures settled 1.6% lower at $76.78 a barrel, giving back some recent gains, as China's ailing property sector sparked demand worries. The loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3411 to the greenback, or 74.57 U.S. cents, its strongest level since Jan. 15. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3455(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3509 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3405 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3350(61.8% fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as investors awaited this week's US Federal Reserve policy meeting for guidance on interest rate forecasts. Investors expect rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. Lingering high interest rates in Europe are also on investors' radar after the European Central Bank policymakers were unable to reach a consensus on Monday over when interest rates should be cut. The Japanese yen gained to 147.48 per dollar, but is expected to fall about 5% in January, its lowest monthly performance since June 2022, as speculators adjust their estimates for when the Bank of Japan would depart its ultra-loose policies .Strong resistance can be seen at 148.53(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.11 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.66(Jan 24th low).
Equities Recap
European stocks scaled a fresh four-year peak on Wednesday driven by a surge in shares of consumer-focused companies that helped offset declines in autos and miners, while investors awaited new developments from U.S.-China trade talks.
The UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.12 percent, and France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.09 percent.
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indexes opened near record highs on Wednesday, as a largely upbeat corporate earnings season and optimism around a U.S.-China trade truce drive a Wall Street rally.
Dow Jones was up by 0.59 percent, S&P 500 was up by 0.76 percent, Nasdaq was up by 1.12 percent.
Treasuries Recap
U.S. Treasury yields fell Monday on lower-than-average activity, marking the start of a busy week of economic data and a Federal Reserve decision that may help determine the course of interest rates this year.
The benchmark 10-year yield was down 6.3 basis points to 4.097%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond was down 4.9 basis points to 4.341%.
Commodities Recap
Gold firmed on Monday as rising tensions in the Middle East lifted demand for the safe-haven asset, while markets awaited a Federal Reserve policy decision later this week for more clues on the timing of this year's first U.S. interest rate cut.
Spot gold was up 0.4% at $2,025.97 an ounce by 02:23 p.m. ET (1923 GMT).U.S. gold futures settled 0.4% higher at $2025.4.
Oil prices fell more than a dollar a barrel on Monday as China's ailing property sector sparked demand worries, causing traders to reassess the supply risk premium from escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Brent crude futures fell $1.15, or 1.4%, to settle at $82.40 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by $1.23, or 1.6%, at $76.78 per barrel.