Posted at 29 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•Sweden GDP (QoQ) (Q4)0.1%, 0.3%forecast, -0.3% previous
•Sweden Dec Retail Sales (MoM) -0.2%, -0.5% previous
•Sweden Dec Retail Sales (YoY) -2.2%, -1.7% previous
•Sweden Dec GDP (MoM) -0.3% ,0.2% previous
•Sweden Dec GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.0%, -1.4% previous
•Belgian GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.4% ,0.2% forecast,0.4% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:55 French 12-Month BTF Auction 3.406% previous
•13:55 French 3-Month BTF Auction 3.837% previous
•13:55 French 6-Month BTF Auction 3.755% previous
•14:00 US Dec Dallas Fed PCE 1.50% previous
•15:30 US Jan Dallas Fed Mfg Business Index -9.3 previous
•16:30 US 3-Month Bill Auction 5.225% previous
•16:30 US 6-Month Bill Auction 5.020% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Events Ahead
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Monday as markets await this week's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for a steer on interest rate expectations. The Fed's policy decision is due on Wednesday, having made a dovish tilt in the December meeting. Markets are widely expecting the U.S. central bank to leave rates unchanged at the end of the two-day meeting.Data on Friday showed gentle growth in U.S. prices in December, keeping annual inflation below 3% for a third consecutive month, potentially allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates this year. The euro was down 0.1% at $1.0838, and was headed for a near 2% decline in the month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0857(Daily high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0881( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound was little changed on Monday as caution persisted ahead of major central bank decisions. Investors are awaiting rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. While policymakers are widely expected to hold interest rates, traders will closely watch for any commentary on the potential for rate cuts. The Bank of England is likely to hint this week it is aware that the time start cutting rates is nearing, but that is unlikely to bring sterling - this year's second-best performing major currency down with it.The consensus in markets is that one or two of the monetary policy committee's hawks will stop voting for rate hikes at their meeting on Thursday Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CHF: The U.S. dollar steadied against Swiss franc on Monday as investors took stock of U.S. economic data ahead of the Federal Reserve policy meeting this week, while escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East kept a lid on risk sentiment. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was little changed at 103.53 on Monday and remained close to the six-week high of 103.82 it touched last week. The index is set for a 2% gain in January as traders temper expectations of early and deep U.S. interest rate cuts. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8669(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8730(Jan 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.86003(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8532(50%fib)
USD/JPY: The dollar edged lower against the yen on Monday as investors awaited this week's US Federal Reserve policy meeting for guidance on interest rate forecasts. Investors expect rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (BoE) later this week. Lingering high interest rates in Europe are also on investors' radar after the European Central Bank policymakers were unable to reach a consensus on Monday over when interest rates should be cut. The Japanese yen gained to 147.865 per dollar, but is expected to fall about 5% in January, its lowest monthly performance since June 2022, as speculators adjust their estimates for when the Bank of Japan would depart its ultra-loose policies. .Strong resistance can be seen at 148.53(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.11 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.66(Jan 24th low).
Equities Recap
European equities started the week on a subdued note, after hitting two-year highs in the previous session, as losses in financial stocks partially outweighed strong gains in the energy sector.
At (GMT 13:07 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.06 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.12 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices firmed on Monday growing concern over the Middle East bolstered bullion's safe-haven appeal while markets await this week's U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting for a steer on interest rate expectations.
Spot gold gained 0.4% to $2,026.81 an ounce by 1048 GMT and U.S. gold futures was up 0.5% at $2,026.60.
Oil prices rose on Monday after a drone attack on U.S. forces in Jordan added to supply disruption concerns in the Middle East and Houthi militants stepped up attacks in the Red Sea.
Brent crude futures gained 21 cents to $83.76 a barrel by 1117 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged up by 21 cents to $78.22.