Posted at 25 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Q4 GDP advance estimate due at 1330 GMT
•ECB rate decision due at 1315 GMT
•German Jan Current Assessment 87.0, 88.6forecast,88.5 previous
•German Jan German Business Expectations 83.5,84.8 forecast,84.3 previous
•German Jan German Ifo Business Climate Index 85.2,86.7 forecast,86.4 previous
•UK Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey -50,-30 forecast,-32 previous
•France Jobseekers Total 2,825.2K,2,826.6K previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•13:15 ECB Jan Interest Rate Decision 4.50% forecast,4.50% previous
•13:15 ECB Jan Deposit Facility Rate 4.00% forecast,4.00% previous
•13:15 ECB Jan ECB Marginal Lending Facility 4.75% previous
•13:15 ECB Monetary Policy Statement
•13:30 US Dec Chicago Fed National Activity 0.03 previous
•13:30 US Dec Goods Trade Balance-88.70B forecast,-90.27B previous
•13:30 Canada Nov Average Weekly Earnings (YoY) 4.03% previous
•13:30 US Dec Initial Jobless Claims200K forecast,187K previous
•13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,828K forecast,1,806K previous
•13:30 US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 203.25K previous
•13:30 Canada Manufacturing Sales (MoM)1.2% previous
•13:30 US Wholesale Inventories (MoM) -0.2% forecast,-0.2% previous
•13:30 US Building Permits 1.495M forecast,1.467M previous
•13:30 US Building Permits (MoM)-2.1% previous
•13:30 US Real Consumer Spending (Q4)3.1% previous
•13:30 US Dec Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) 0.1% forecast,0.8% previous
•13:30 US Dec Retail Inventories Ex Auto -0.9% previous
•13:30 US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)2.0% forecast,4.9% previous
•13:30 US GDP Sales (Q4) 3.6% previous
•13:30 US Core PCE Prices (Q4)2.00% forecast,2.00% previous
•13:30 US PCE Prices (Q4) 2.6% previous
•13:30 US GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) 2.3% forecast,3.3% previous
•13:30 US Dec Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 0.2% forecast,0.5% previous
•13:30 US Dec Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 1.1% forecast,5.4% previous
•15:00 US Dec New Home Sales (MoM) -12.2% previous
•15:00 US Dec New Home Sales 645K forecast,590K previous
•15:30 US Natural Gas Storage -322B forecast,-154B previous
•16:00 US Jan KC Fed Composite Index -1 previous
•16:00 US Jan KC Fed Manufacturing Index -4 previous
•16:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction 5.285% previous
•16:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 5.275% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•13:45 ECB Press Conference
•15:15 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•16:00 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
Currency Forecast
EUR/USD: The euro was little changed on Thursday as investors awaited ECB interest rate decision. The ECB's rate decision is scheduled at 1315 GMT, with markets anticipating a halt at the current 4% level, however the central bank is likely to back off bets for dramatic policy easing this spring.The decision will be followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's news conference at 1345 GMT, with traders seeking for indications about the timing of rate cut. Markets are pricing in nearly 130 basis points (bps) of cuts this year, down from around 150 bps around two weeks ago. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0970(Jan 15th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The pound edged higher against the dollar on Thursday as sterling was supported by yesterday's stronger British business activity data , while upcoming European Central Bank meeting kept traders on edge. Sterling was up a slightly versus the dollar at $1.2725, after gaining 0.3% the day before on the announcement of Britain's Composite PMI, which jumped to 52.5 in January, the highest level in seven months. Currency markets were fairly quiet in early European trading on Thursday ahead of several key events.The pound has been supported in recent weeks by expectations that the ECB and the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates before the Bank of England. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2757(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2813(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2682 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2649 (Jan 23rd low).
USD/CHF: The dollar gained against the Swiss franc on Thursday ahead of a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and US GDP data that might provide investors clues about the way forward for interest rates. The first figure of fourth-quarter US GDP comes 15 minutes after the ECB's rate decision is announced. According to a survey, expectations are for 2% annualized increase, with projections ranging from 0.8% to 2.8%. Other U.S. data this week includes the Fed's favourite gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data - on Friday.Next week, the Fed is widely expected to stand pat but comments from Chair Jerome Powell will be intensely scrutinized to assess if the U.S. central bank is ready to start cutting interest rates. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.8697(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.8727 (Jan 23rd high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8622(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.8568(61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar edged higher against yen on Thursday as market participants keenly awaited the release of fourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product figures later in the day and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index on Friday to gauge the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance when it meets next week. The dollar index, which tracks the unit against six peers, is up about 2% this month as traders drastically scaled back bets on early and deep rate cuts by the Fed following pushback from central bankers and a slew of data that underscored the resiliency of the U.S. economy. The dollar slightly higher and was last at 147.61 per yen, giving back some of its losses from Wednesday as traders took note of the Bank of Japan's hawkish tilt. Strong resistance can be seen at 147.89(38.2% fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 148.42( Jan 19th high).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.00(Psychological level)a break below could take the pair towards 145.56(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European shares slipped lower on Thursday as investors widely awaited rate decision from the European Central Bank .
At (GMT 13:12 ) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was down by 0.25 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.57 percent, France’s CAC was down by 0.58 percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, helped by a slight pullback in the dollar, while investors awaited more U.S. economic data and the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy decision.
Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,017.39 per ounce by 1040 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.1% to $2,018.10.
Oil prices surged on Thursday as data indicated that US oil stocks declined more than expected last week, while a new attack by Houthi troops on ships off Yemen's coast highlighted the risk to commerce in a vital global transit route.
Brent crude futures were up 98 cents, or 1.2%, to $81.02 a barrel at 1150 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up $1, or 1.3%, to $76.09 a barrel.