Posted at 23 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•BOJ signals possible exit from negative rates in April
•U.S. rate futures price in 44% chance of rate cut in March
•Focus on ECB meeting, bank likely to keep rates steady
•Canada Dec New Housing Price Index (MoM) 0.0% ,0.0% forecast,-0.2% previous
•US Jan Richmond Manufacturing Index-15,-7 forecast,-11 previous
•US Jan Richmond Manufacturing Shipments -15,-17 previous
•EU Jan Consumer Confidence -16.1,-14.3 forecast,-15.0 previous
•US Jan Richmond Services Index 4,0 previous
•US 52-Week Bill Auction 4.570%,4.595% previous
•US 2-Year Note Auction 4.365%, 4.314% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•23:30 Japan Dec Trade Balance -122.1B forecast,-776.9B previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Imports (YoY) -5.3% forecast,-11.9% previous
•23:30 Japan Dec Exports (YoY) 9.1% forecast,-0.2% previous
•23:30 Japan Adjusted Trade Balance-0.45T forecast,-0.41T previous
•00:00 Australia Dec MI Leading Index (MoM) 0.1% previous
•00:00 Japan Jan Manufacturing PMI 48.2 forecast,47.9 previous
•00:00 Japan Services PMI 51.5 previous
•02:00 New Zealand Credit Card Spending (YoY) 3.3% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Significant events
Currency Summaries
EUR/USD: The euro dipped on Tuesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting later this week. Market participants keenly await the ECB's monetary policy meeting, due on Jan. 25, for clues on the interest rate trajectory and the timing of rate cuts.While a pause in interest rate hikes is nearly priced in for the upcoming meeting, traders anticipate cuts of around 130 basis points this year, with a nearly 97% chance of the first reduction in June. The euro gave back earlier gains to trade down at $1.0858. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0934(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0970(Jan 15th High).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0850(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0832(Lower BB).
GBP/USD: The British pound traded in tight range against the dollar on Tuesday as markets awaited economic data that could offer clarity on the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary easing plans. Investors await readings on UK business activity as well as consumer confidence later this week to gauge how the British economy is faring and the BoE's interest rate trajectory. The main British economic news was a smaller-than-expected budget deficit for December, potentially opening up room for tax cuts in a budget scheduled for March. The pound was up 0.06% at $1.2693. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2729(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2799(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2633 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2592(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar edged higher against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday as investors attention tuned to this week’s BoC rate decision .The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its key overnight rate unchanged at its meeting on Wednesday, but stubborn inflation has markets delaying the timeline for the first rate cut in almost four years.After the previous three months showed prices declining or flat versus a year ago, headline inflation picked up in December, accelerating to 3.4% from 3.1% and the closely-watched core inflation data also surprised on the upside.That prompted money markets to push back their bets.The Canadian dollar was last trading 0.03% higher at 1.3456 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3503(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3543 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3440 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3381 (50%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Tuesday as investors resumed buying the greenback following a brief pause, on continued anticipation that the Federal Reserve would exercise caution in reducing interest rates, considering the ongoing stability of the U.S. economy. The U.S. rate futures market on Tuesday priced in a roughly 47% chance of a March rate cut, up from late on Monday, but down from as much 80% about two weeks ago. The US dollar had earlier declined vs the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan signalled an April exit from negative interest rates while maintaining its ultra-easy policies during its policy meeting on Tuesday. The dollar has subsequently appreciated vs the yen and was last up 0.2% at 148.385 yen.Strong resistance can be seen at 148.86(23.6% fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.57( Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.77(38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.34(Dec 4th low).
Equities Recap
European equities ended lower on Tuesday as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting later this week, while advancing mining stocks helped limit losses.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.03 percent, Germany's Dax ended down by 0.35percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 0.34 percent.
The S&P 500 climbed to a record high close on Tuesday as investors digested a mixed bag of early quarterly results and awaited a slew of additional reports from Tesla and other companies later this week.
Dow Jones closed down by 0.25% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.29% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 0.43% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday, as investors anticipated a flurry of economic data from the United States this week for fresh clues about the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cut schedule.
Spot gold was up 0.2% to $2,025.09 per ounce by 2:00 p.m. ET (1900 GMT).Gold futures settled 0.2% higher at $2025.8.
Oil prices fell marginally as traders considered simmering geopolitical concerns in multiple countries, including supply interruptions in the United States and restoring production in Libya.
Oil prices inched up Tuesday, as traders weighed production outages in the US. and tensions in the Middle East and Europe against rising crude supply in Libya and Norway.
Brent crude futures were up 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $80.36 a barrel at 11:24 a.m. EST (1618 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) gained 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $75.22 a barrel.