Posted at 21 April 2022 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
• EU April CPI, n.s.a 114.46, 114.50 previous
•Belgium April Consumer Confidence -14,-16 previous
•EU Mar CPI (MoM) 2.4%,2.5% forecast, 0.9% previous
•EU Mar CPI ex Tobacco (YoY) 7.6%,5.9% previous
•EU Mar Core CPI (YoY) 2.9%,3.0% forecast, 2.7% previous
•EU Mar Core CPI (MoM) 1.2%,1.2% forecast, 0.5% previous
•EU Mar HICP ex Energy & Food (YoY) 3.2%, 3.2% forecast, 2.9% previous
•EU Mar CPI (YoY) 7.4%, 7.5% forecast, 5.9% previous
•US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg. 177.25K, 172.75K previous
•US Continuing Jobless Claims 1,417K,1,455K forecast,1,475K previous
•US Initial Jobless Claims 184K, 180K forecast, 186K previous
•US April Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 17.6, 21.0 forecast, 27.4 previous
•US April Philly Fed Prices Paid 84.60, 81.00 previous
•US April Philly Fed Employment 41.4, 38.9 previous
•US April Philly Fed Business Conditions 8.2, 22.7 previous
•US April Philly Fed CAPEX Index 19.90, 24.80 previous
•US Mar Leading Index (MoM) 0.3%,0.3% forecast,0.3% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)
•15:00 US 8-Week Bill Auction 0.570% previous
•15:00 US 4-Week Bill Auction 0.370% previous
Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)
•22:30 US Fed Chair Powell Speaks
•22:30 ECB President Lagarde Speaks
•22:00 UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks
Fxbeat
EUR/USD: The euro strengthened on Thursday as a series of hawkish comments amplified bets that the European Central Bank would soon hike interest rates. Joachim Nagel, president of Germany’s Bundesbank, joined fellow policymakers in saying the ECB could raise interest rates at the start of the third quarter. Money markets, which had eased rate hike bets following last Thursday’s ECB meeting, were now pricing in a 20 basis point (bps) rise by July and over 70 bps of tightening by year-end. The euro rose as much as 0.7% against the U.S. dollar to $1.0936, its highest level since April 11. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0833(38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0960(50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0821 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0785 (23.6%fib).
GBP/USD: The British pound weakened against dollar on Thursday as investors focused on the respective future monetary policy paths of the Bank of England and other major central banks. BoE monetary policymaker Catherine Mann said on Thursday interest rates would probably have to go up “a little bit” further, and that in some ways Britain’s economy was already suffering from stagflation. The Bank of England last month softened its language on the need for more interest rate increases while stressing downside risks to the economy. The pound was down 0.7% at 83.63 pence per euro, its lowest since April 11. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3083 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3163 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3027 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2983(23.6%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar steadied on Thursday as investor bet on aggressive global interest rate hikes. Markets are expecting at least another half-percentage-point rate hike from the U.S. Fed next month while one ECB policymaker said on Wednesday it might start hiking euro zone rates as early as July. Investors got a fresh glimpse into the Federal Reserve's economic outlook on Wednesday when it issued its "Beige Book" of economic conditions from late February to early April. The central bank reported the economy expanded at a moderate pace during that time, though business reported issues with high inflation and worker shortages. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9523 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9585 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9460(50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9412(61.8% fib),).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the yen on Thursday as greenback rose on expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve monetary tightening, but it was well off the previous day's peaks amid nervousness about what G7 might say about its rapid appreciation. The greenback added 0.36% to 128.335 yen, after soaring to a two-decade high of 129.430 on Wednesday as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) stepped in to the bond market for the third time in three months to defend its zero-percent yield target, drawing a stark contrast with the Fed’s increasingly hawkish posture. Strong resistance can be seen at 129.34 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 130.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 127.63(38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 126.37(50%fib).
Equities Recap
European stocks fell on Tuesday, with rising bond yields, Russia's renewed campaign in eastern Ukraine, worries over economic slowdown and expectations of aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve keeping investors on edge.
At (GMT 15:04) UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last up at 0.10% percent, Germany's Dax was last up by 1.11 % percent, France’s CAC was last up by 1.49 % percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold slipped 1% to a two-week low on Thursday pressured by elevated U.S. Treasury yields and firmer risk appetite, with investors expecting aggressive policy tightening by the Federal Reserve.
Spot gold was down 0.6% to $1,944.85 per ounce by 1437 GMT, after hitting its lowest level since April 8. U.S. gold futures shed 0.5% to $1,946.10.
Oil prices rose on Thursday amid concerns about supply as the European Union (EU) mulls a potential ban on Russian oil imports days after diminished supplies from Libya rocked the market.
Brent crude futures rose $1.58, or 1.5%, to $108.38 a barrel at 1343 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained $1.64, or 1.6%, to $103.83 a barrel.