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Europe Roundup: Euro gains against dollar as Euro zone retail sales beat expectations, European stocks gain, Oil prices slip despite big U.S. inventory fall-May 6th,2021

Posted at 06 May 2021 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

•German Mar Factory Orders (MoM)  3.0%, 1.7% forecast, 1.2% previous

•German Apr Markit Services PMI  55.2, 55.8 previous

•French Industrial Investments (Q2) 10.0%, 10.0% previous

• German Apr IHS Markit Construction PMI   46.2, 47.5 previous

•UK April Composite PMI  60.7, 60.0 forecast, 56.4 previous        

•UK April Services PMI  61.0, 60.1 forecast, 56.3 previous

•EU March Retail Sales (MoM)  2.7%,1.5% forecast, 3.0% previous

•EU March Retail Sales (YoY)  12.0%,9.6% forecast, -2.9% previous

•UK May BoE QE Total  875B, 875B forecast, 875B previous

UK May  BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.10%, 0.10% forecast, 0.10% previous

•US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q1) -0.3%, -0.8% forecast, 6.0% previous

•US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q1) 5.4% ,4.3% forecast, -4.2% previous

• US Initial Jobless Claims 498K ,540K forecast, 553K previous

•US Continuing Jobless Claims 3,690K, 3,620K forecast, 3,660K previous

• US Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg  560.00K ,611.75K previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•13:00 Russia Central Bank reserves (USD) 589.5B previous

•13:45 US Apr ISM-New York Index  804.5 previous

•13:45 US Apr ISM NY Business Conditions  37.2% previous

•14:30 US Natural Gas Storage 64B forecast, 15B previous

•15:30 US 4-Week Bill Auction 0.000% previous

•15:30 US 8-Week Bill Auction 0.010% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic events and other releases (GMT)

•17:00 US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks

•17:00 US FOMC Member Mester Speaks

•22:05 US FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks

Fx Beat 

EUR/USD: The euro rose against dollar on Thursday after data showed    Euro zone retail sales beat expectations. Euro zone retail sales rose by more than expected in March, data showed on Thursday, pointing to pent-up consumer demand as pandemic lockdowns ease. The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said on Thursday that retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro jumped 2.7% month-on-month in March for a 12.0% year-on-year surge. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2060 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2100 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1989 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1942 (50DMA).

GBP/USD: Sterling strengthened against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England kept the scale of its stimulus programme unchanged on Thursday as Britain's economy shows signs of recovery from its coronavirus slump. The BoE kept its benchmark interest rate at an all-time low of 0.1% and the size of its bond-buying programme unchanged at 895 billion pounds ($1.24 trillion). Sterling rose to hit the day’s high of $1.3942, up 0.2% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3922 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.4005(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3859 (50DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3808 (38.2%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Thursday as global market risk appetite improved reducing demand for greenback.  The greenback has rebounded from a one-month low over the past week, swung by U.S. economic data that has largely supported the case for a rapid recovery from the pandemic, with traders weighing whether a lift in inflation may force the Fed's hand earlier than policymakers have so far suggested. The U.S. economy may be growing more quickly and unemployment falling faster than the core of Federal Reserve policymakers projected in March, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Wednesday. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9122(11DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9155 (38.2%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9078 (23.6%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9030(Lower BB).

USD/JPY: The dollar dipped against the yen on Thursday as investors awaited the release of U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April due later this week. U.S. private payrolls surged by the most in seven months in April as companies rushed to boost production amid a surge in demand, suggesting the economy gained further momentum early in the second quarter, powered by massive government aid and rising COVID-19 vaccinations. Investors look forward to Friday's U.S. monthly jobs report, which is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 978,000 jobs last month.  Strong resistance can be seen at 109.43 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.97(61.8%fb).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 108.94 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 108.78 (11DMA).

Equities Recap

European stocks inched higher on Thursday, hovering near record levels, as strong earnings reports from AB Inbev and several eurozone banks added to an upbeat mood sparked by solid economic data.

At (GMT 12:40),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.09 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.19 percent, France’s CAC was last down by 0.13 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Thursday as the dollar retreated from two-week highs and U.S. Treasury yields fell, with traders focusing on economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s strategy on monetary support going forward.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,793 per ounce by 0948 GMT. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $1,793.50 per ounce.

Oil prices slipped after earlier gains on Thursday, weighed by rising COVID-19 infections in India and elsewhere, and despite a much sharper than expected fall in U.S. crude inventories.

Brent crude oil futures fell by 28 cents, or 0.4%, to $68.68 a barrel by 0939 GMT, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude futures lost 31 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.32 a barrel.


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