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Europe Roundup: Euro gains as dollar softens ahead of Fed meeting,European stocks flat, Gold hits near 2-week high, Oil rises but bleaker demand outlook weighs-September 15th,2020

Posted at 15 September 2020 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

• U.S. Fed’s policy announcement on Wednesday

 •UK Aug Claimant Count Change  73.7K, 100.0K forecast, 94.4K previous

•UK Jul Average Earnings ex Bonus  0.2%,-0.2% forecast, -0.2% previous

•UK Jul Unemployment Rate  4.1%,4.1% forecast, 3.9% previous

•UK Jul Average Earnings Index +Bonus  -1.0%,-1.3% forecast, -1.2% previous

•UK Jul Employment Change 3M/3M (MoM)  -12K, -125K forecast, -220K previous

•Swiss Aug PPI (MoM)  -0.4%,0.1% previous

•Swiss Aug PPI (YoY)  -3.5%,-3.3% previous

•French Aug CPI (MoM)  -0.1%,-0.1% forecast, 0.4% previous

•French Aug HICP (YoY)  0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.2% previous

•French Aug HICP (MoM)  -0.1%, -0.1% forecast, -0.1% previous

•French CPI (YoY) 0.2%,0.2% forecast, 0.8% previous

•Italian Aug CPI (MoM)  0.3%,0.3% forecast, -0.2% previous

•Italian Aug CPI (YoY)  -0.5%, -0.5% forecast, -0.4% previous

•EU Sep ZEW Economic Sentiment  73.9                forecast, 64.0 previous

•German Sep ZEW Current Conditions  -66.2, -72.0 forecast, -81.3 previous

•German Sep ZEW Economic Sentiment  77.4, 69.8 forecast, 71.5 previous

•EU Aug Reserve Assets Total  915.08B, 922.98B previous

•US Import Price Index (YoY) -1.4%,-3.3% previous

•US Export Price Index (YoY) -2.8%, -4.4% previous

•Canada Jul  Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 7.0%,  8.7% forecast, 20.7% previous

•US Sep NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 17.00,6.00, 3.70 previous

•US Aug Import Price Index (MoM)  0.9%,0.5% forecast, 0.7% previous

•US Aug Export Price Index (MoM) 0.5%, 0.4% forecast, 0.8% previous

•US Redbook (MoM) -1.6%,-1.0% previous

•US Redbook (YoY) -1.2%,-0.1% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

•13:15 US Aug Industrial Production (MoM ) 1.0% forecast, 3.0% previous

•13:15 US Aug Capacity Utilization Rate  71.4%   forecast, 70.6% previous

•13:15 US Aug Industrial Production (YoY)  -8.18% previous

•13:15 US Aug Manufacturing Production (MoM)  1.2% forecast, 3.4% previous

•14:30 New Zealand GlobalDairy Trade Price Index -1.0% previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

•No significant events

 Fx Beat

EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Tuesday as surprise jump   in Germany’s ZEW sentiment survey boosted euro across the boar. Investor sentiment in Germany rose unexpectedly in September, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, signalling confidence in a recovery from the coronavirus crisis despite headwinds from stalled Brexit talks and rising new infections. The survey of investors’ economic sentiment rose to 77.4 from 71.5 points the previous month. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1892 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1935 (Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1846 (21 DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1815 (50% fib ).

GBP/USD:  Sterling rose against dollar on Tuesday after better-than-expected jobs data and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson faced opposition within his party to proposed legislation that would breach the Brexit treaty. But the bounce was likely to be temporary, analysts said, as Johnson faces a growing rebellion from his own party and more attempted revisions as the bill progresses. The pound, which has fallen sharply in recent weeks as investors fretted that Johnson’s plan sharply increased the risk of a no-deal Brexit, was 0.5% higher at $1.2908, moving away from two-week lows. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2892 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3011( 50% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2808 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2751 (23.6%fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting starting on Wednesday. Market participants are now looking at the U.S. Fed's two-day policy meeting, which ends on Wednesday. The meeting will be its first since Chairman Jerome Powell unveiled a policy shift towards greater tolerance of inflation, effectively pledging to keep interest rates low for longer. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9097 (21 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9119 (23.6% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9049 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The Japanese yen strengthened against dollar on Tuesday as Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga won a ruling party leadership vote, as expected, paving the way for Japan’s first change of leader in nearly eight years. He faces a vast array of challenges, including tackling COVID-19 while reviving a battered economy and dealing with a rapidly aging society in which nearly a third of the population is older than 65. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.91 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 106.44 (50%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 105.22 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.20  (July 31st low).

Equities Recap

European stocks struggled for direction on Tuesday, with banking shares declining ahead of the U.S. and UK central bank meetings this week, while Sweden’s H&M surged after reporting a better-than-expected profit.

At (GMT 12:45 ),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 1.28 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.43 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.60 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold hit a near two-week high on Tuesday as the dollar weakened and investors turned their focus to a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, seeking details of how it planned to hold down rates while aiming to boost inflation.

Spot gold was up 0.4% at $1,963.22 per ounce by 0643 GMT, after hitting $1,968.80 earlier, its highest level since Sept. 2. U.S. gold futures climbed 0.5% to $1,973.

Oil prices rose on Tuesday, but forecasts of a slower than expected recovery in global fuel demand due to the coronavirus pandemic weighed.

Brent crude   was up 44 cents, or 1.1%, at $40.05 a barrel by 1209 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures   were up 52 cents, or 1.4%, at $37.78 a barrel. Both contracts fell on Monday.


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