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America’s Roundup: Dollar heads for steepest monthly drop in decade, Wall Street gains, Gold rises, Oil posts monthly gains as U.S. reports record output cuts in May-August 1st,2020

Posted at 31 July 2020 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

• Canada June IPPI (MoM) 0.4%,  0.5% forecast,1.2% previous

• Canada June RMPI (YoY) -13.5%,   -24.3% previous

• Canada June IPPI (YoY)  -3.1% ,-4.9% previous

• Canada June RMPI (MoM) 7.5%, 6.9% forecast, 16.4% previous

• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5% ,0.6%,0.8% previous

• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2) 0.40% ,0.90% previous

• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2) 0.80% ,0.40% previous

• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM)  5.2%, 8.1% previous

• US June Personal Income (MoM) -1.1%, -0.5%,-4.2% previous

• US June Personal Spending (MoM) 5.6%,  5.5% forecast, 8.2% previous

• US June PCE price index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% previous

• US June PCE Price index (YoY)  0.8 ,0.5 previous

• US June Core PCE Price Index (YoY)  0.9% ,1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous

• US June Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%,  0.2%,0.1% previous

• Canada May GDP (MoM)  4.5% ,3.5% forecast , -11.6% previous

•Canada June Building Permits (MoM) 6.2%, 20.2% previous

• Brazil June Budget Balance  -210.161B,-164.079B forecast, -140.400B previous

• Brazil June Debt-to-GDP ratio  58.1%,  57.0% forecast, 55.0% previous

• US Chicago Jul PMI  51.9, 43.9 forecast, 36.6 previous

• US Michigan Jul Consumer Sentiment 72.5,  73.0 forecast, 73.2 previous

• US Michigan Jul Michigan Current Conditions 82.8,   84.2 forecast, 87.1 previous

• US Michigan Jul Consumer Expectations  65.9,66.2, 72.3 previous

• US Michigan Jul Inflation Expectations 3.0%,  3.1%,3.0% previous

• Canada May Budget Balance -43.93B,  -14.79B previous

• Canada May Budget Balance (YoY) -86.77B,   -21.77B previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)

• No data ahead

Looking Ahead -Events and Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Currency Summaries

EUR/USD: The euro dipped against dollar on Friday as growing doubts over Eurozone economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis overshadowed weaker dollar. The euro zone’s economy recorded its deepest contraction on record in the second quarter, preliminary estimates showed on Friday. In the months from April to June, gross domestic product in the 19-country currency bloc shrank by 12.1% from the previous quarter.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1807 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1922 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1708 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1653 (11 DMA).

GBP/USD: The pound strengthened against dollar on Friday as a broad-based dollar decline fuelled demand for the British currency. But concerns of a second wave of infections, a weak economy and growing pressure to strike a Brexit trade deal before a transition period ends in December are prompting investors to become wary of the currency’s prospects in coming months. The pound rose hit high at $1.3159, its highest level since early March. It was last trading at 1.3083. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3185 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3249 (31st Dec 2019 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3068 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2968 (38.2%fib).

USD/CAD :The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Friday to notch its fourth straight monthly gain, its longest winning run in six years, as domestic data showed the economy expanded more than expected in May.The gain for the loonie on Friday follows a decline in recent days. As the end of the month approaches, some market players tend to rebalance their currency hedges. The loonie has benefited in July from a weakening of the U.S. dollar, as coronavirus cases climbed in the United States, and from higher prices for oil, one of Canada's major exports. On Friday, the loonie was trading 0.3% higher at 1.3377 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3424 (23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3493 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3274 (5DMA), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3200 (Psychological level).

USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday as investors covered shorts and took profits after sharp decline in the currency pair. The dollar mostly held gains against Japanese yen after data showed U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending has pulled out of April’s deep hole but remains below its pre-pandemic level, and the currency strengthened as the session wore on. At (GMT 22:15), greenback was up 0.41% versus the Japanese yen to 105.85.  Strong resistance can be seen at 106.31 (50% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 107.00(Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.40 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 104.16 (23.6% fib).

Equities Recap

European stocks posted their first monthly decline since a market selloff in March on Friday as growing doubts over a global recovery from the coronavirus crisis overshadowed a batch of strong earnings from technology firms.

UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed down by 1.54 percent, Germany's Dax ended down  by 0.54 percent, France’s CAC finished the day down by 1.43 percent.

The Nasdaq jumped more than 1% on Friday, powered by strong earnings from some of the largest U.S. companies, but the Dow and S&P finished with smaller gains as uncertainty about the government’s next round of coronavirus aid kept economic worries on the radar.

Dow Jones closed up  by  0.45% percent, S&P 500 closed up by 0.77% percent, Nasdaq settled up by 1.49%  percent.

Treasuries Recap

Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rose off near-record lows on Friday, but caution held back shorter-term rates and steepened the yield curve as talks in Washington on a new coronavirus aid bill continued.

 The benchmark 10-year yield was up 1.3 basis points at 0.5543% in  afternoon trading after reaching as low as 52 basis points, the least since March.

Commodities Recap

Gold rose on Friday, hovering near its all time peak, as a sliding dollar and dire economic numbers from far and wide sparked a rush to safety in bullion, which is on course for its biggest monthly gain since February 2016.

Spot gold  gained 0.6% to $1,971.83 per ounce by 2:17 p.m. EDT (1817 GMT), while U.S. gold futures settled 1% higher at $1,985.9.

Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for monthly gains, benefiting from news that U.S. oil output cuts in May were the largest on record.

Brent crude settled up 37 cents, or 0.9%, at $43.31 a barrel.U.S. crude was up 35 cents, or 0.9%, at $40.27 after dropping 3.3% in the previous session, also off lows not seen since July 10.


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