Posted at 31 July 2020 / Categories Market Roundups
• Euro jumps to $1.19, eyes best month since 2010
• French GDP (QoQ) (Q2) 13.8%,-15.3% forecast, -5.3% previous
• German June Retail Sales (MoM) -1.6%,-3.3% forecast, 13.9% previous
• German June Retail Sales (YoY) 5.9%, 3.0% forecast, 3.8% previous
• UK July Nationwide HPI (MoM) 1.7%,-0.1% forecast, -1.4% previous
• UK July Nationwide HPI (YoY) 1.5%,-0.3% forecast ,-0.1% previous
• French Jul Consumer Spending (MoM) 9.0%,3.2% forecast , 36.6% previous
• French CPI (MoM) 0.4%,-0.1% forecast , 0.1% previous
• French CPI (YoY) 0.8%,0.3% forecast , 0.2% previous
• Italian GDP (QoQ) (Q2) -12.4%,-15.0% forecast , -5.3% previous
• Italian GDP (YoY) (Q2) -17.3%,-18.7% forecast , -5.4% previous
• Portuguese CPI (MoM) -1.3%,0.9% previous
• EU Jul CPI (YoY) 0.4%, 0.2% forecast, 0.3% previous
•Italian Jul CPI (YoY) -0.3%,-0.1% forecast, -0.2% previous
• Italian Jul CPI (MoM) -0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.1% previous
• EU July CPI, n.s.a 105.36 , 105.69 previous
• EU Core CPI (YoY) 1.2%,0.8% previous
• EU GDP (QoQ) -12.1%,-11.2% forecast, -3.6% previous
• EU GDP (YoY) -15.0%, -13.9% forecast, -3.1% previous
• Italian June Retail Sales (YoY) -2.2%,-10.5% previous
• Canada June IPPI (MoM) 0.4%, 0.5% forecast,1.2% previous
• Canada June RMPI (YoY) -13.5%, -24.3% previous
• Canada June IPPI (YoY) -3.1% ,-4.9% previous
• Canada June RMPI (MoM) 7.5%, 6.9% forecast, 16.4% previous
• US Employment Cost Index (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5% ,0.6%,0.8% previous
• US Employment Wages (QoQ) (Q2) 0.40% ,0.90% previous
• US Employment Benefits (QoQ) (Q2) 0.80% ,0.40% previous
• US Real Personal Consumption (MoM) 5.2%, 8.1% previous
• US June Personal Income (MoM) -1.1%, -0.5%,-4.2% previous
• US June Personal Spending (MoM) 5.6%, 5.5% forecast, 8.2% previous
• US June PCE price index (MoM) 0.4%, 0.1% previous
• US June PCE Price index (YoY) 0.8 ,0.5 previous
• US June Core PCE Price Index (YoY) 0.9% ,1.0% forecast, 1.0% previous
• US June Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 0.2%, 0.2%,0.1% previous
• Canada May GDP (MoM) 4.5% ,3.5% forecast , -11.6% previous
•Canada June Building Permits (MoM) 6.2%, 20.2% previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data
• Brazil June Budget Balance -164.079B forecast, -140.400B previous
• Brazil June Debt-to-GDP ratio 57.0% forecast, 55.0% previous
• US Chicago Jul PMI 43.9 forecast, 36.6 previous
• US Michigan Jul Consumer Sentiment 73.0 forecast, 73.2 previous
• US Michigan Jul Michigan Current Conditions 84.2 forecast, 87.1 previous
• US Michigan Jul Consumer Expectations 66.2, 72.3 previous
• US Michigan Jul Inflation Expectations 3.1%,3.0% previous
• Canada May Budget Balance -14.79B previous
• Canada May Budget Balance (YoY) -21.77B previous
• US June Dallas Fed PCE 1.50% previous
Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)
• No significant events
EUR/USD: The euro edged higher against dollar on Friday, despite data showing the euro zone economy recorded its deepest contraction on record in the second quarter while the bloc’s inflation unexpectedly ticked up in July. The euro traded below $1.10 as recently as May, but after European Union leaders agreed this month to a 750 billion euro economic recovery fund - while also taking on debt jointly in a major boost to regional cooperation many investors have warmed to the currency again. The euro surged to as high as $1.1908 before slipping towards 1.1854 , up 0.1% on the day. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1926 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1000 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0802 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.1792 (38.2% fib).
GBP/USD: The pound rose against dollar on Friday investors continue to shrug off stalled EU-UK talks. Britain and the European Union clashed last week over the chances of securing a free trade agreement, with Brussels deeming it unlikely but London holding out hope one could be reached in September. The pound was last up 0.3% versus the dollar at 1.3146. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3185 (23.6% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3249 (31st Dec 2019 high).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3068 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2968 (38.2%fib).
USD/CHF: The dollar declined against the Swiss franc on Friday as investors fretted that a rebound in the U.S. economy would be derailed by the struggle to stem the coronavirus epidemic. Confidence in the dollar was undermined further after U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday raised the possibility of delaying the November presidential election. That came on the same day advance gross domestic product (GDP) data showed contraction of an annualised 32.9% in the second quarter, the quickest pace since the Great Depression. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9138 (5 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9161 (38.2% fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9049 (23.6% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9000 (Psychological level).
USD/JPY: The dollar strengthened against the Japanese yen on Friday as pick-up in Chinese factory activity aided riskier bets. Further supporting the risk-on mood was data which showed China’s factories stepped up activity in July for a fifth straight month on improving prospects for electrical and pharmaceutical goods. At (GMT 12:15), greenback was up 0.41% versus the Japanese yen to 0.9774. Strong resistance can be seen at 105.13 (38.2% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 105.76 (9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 106.40 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 103.50 (23.6%fib).
European shares recovered from their lowest levels in a month on Friday, as investors looked past a severe economic contraction in Germany and on to company earnings, while the euro reached its highest in more than two years, set for its best month in a decade.
At (GMT 12:23),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.85 percent, Germany's Dax was down by 0.04 percent, France’s CAC was last up by 0.35 percent.
Gold rose on Friday and headed for its biggest monthly gain in 8-1/2 years as the impact of the worsening coronavirus pandemic on the U.S. economy hammered the dollar, prompting investors to seek refuge in bullion.
Spot gold gained 0.8% to $1,975.10 per ounce by 1207 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.5% to $1,970.80.
Oil prices rose on Friday and were on track for monthly gains, benefiting from a weaker dollar which continued to be hit by concerns over the recovery of the U.S. economy as the coronavirus ravages economic output.
Brent crude was up 43 cents, or 1%, at $43.37 a barrel by 1130 GMT. On Thursday, Brent closed 1.9% down after touching its lowest since July 10.
U.S. crude gained 36 cents, or 0.9%, to $40.28 after dropping 3.3% in the previous session, also off lows not seen since July 10.