News

Europe Roundup: Euro falls against dollar as recession fears grow,European shares gain, Gold dips over 2%, Oil price bounces off 18-year lows-March 31st,2020

Posted at 31 March 2020 / Categories Market Roundups


Market Roundup

• UK Business Investment (QoQ) (Q4) -0.5%,-1.0% previous

• UK Business Investment (YoY) (Q4) 1.8%,-0.6% forecast, 0.9% previous

• UK Current Account (Q4) -5.6B , -7.0B forecast, -15.9B previous

• UK GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0%,0.0%    forecast, 0.4% previous

• UK GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.1%,1.1% forecast, 1.1% previous

• German Feb Import Price Index (MoM)  -0.9%,-0.3% forecast, -0.4% previous

• French Feb Consumer Spending (MoM)  -0.1%,0.7% forecast, -1.2% previous  
 
• French CPI (MoM) 0.0%,0.0% forecast, 0.0% previous
    
• Spanish GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 0.4%,0.5% forecast, 0.4% previous    

• German March Unemployment Change 1K    , 29K forecast, -8K previous

• German March Unemployment Rate 5.0%,5.1% forecast, 5.0% previous

• German March Unemployment 2.267M, 2.266M previous

• EU Core CPI (YoY) 1.0%,1.2% previous

• EU Core CPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.2% previous

• EU March CPI (YoY)  0.7%,0.8% , 1.2% previous

• EU CPI (MoM) 0.5%,0.2% previous

• Canada Jan GDP (MoM)  0.1%,0.1% forecast, 0.3% previous

• Canada Feb IPPI (YoY)  -0.3%,0.5% previous

• Canada Feb IPPI (MoM)  -0.5%    , 0.1% forecast, -0.3% previous

• Canada Feb RMPI (YoY) -5.9%,1.7% previous

Looking Ahead - Economic Data (GMT)  

• 13:45 US March Chicago PMI 40.0 forecast, 49.0 previous

• 14:00 US March CB Consumer Confidence 110.0, 130.7 previous 
   
•14:30 US March Dallas Fed Services Revenues 14.0 previous

• 14:30 US March Texas Services Sector Outlook 7.0 previous

Looking Ahead - Events, Other Releases (GMT)

• No significant events

Fx Beat

EUR/USD: The euro declined against dollar on Tuesday as investors assed the impact of massive official stimulus efforts against a near total shut down in global supply chains due to the coronavirus pandemic. Fears of a deep and lasting global recession, an unexpected expansion in Chinese factory data offered a glimmer of hope for economic growth, but analysts cautioned that a durable near-term recovery was still far from assured. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.1011 (55 DMA), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.1055 (21 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0928 (Daily low), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0900  (Psychological level).

GBP/USD: The pound fell against the dollar on Tuesday as the U.S. currency gained strength due to its safe-haven properties amid the spread of the coronavirus. Concerned by the number of growing COVID-19 cases in the United States, where the reported cases are nearly double those in China, investors bought the dollar against sterling and other major currencies considered riskier than the U.S. currency. The pound traded 0.13% lower at $1.2400. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2416 (38.2 %fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2500 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2219 (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2040 (61.8% fib).

USD/CHF: The dollar strengthened against the Swiss franc on Tuesday as upbeat   Chinese economic data boosted risk appetite. Factory activity in China unexpectedly expanded in March after contracting sharply to a record low in the previous month, but the rapid global spread of the coronavirus is expected to keep businesses and the overall economy under heavy pressure as foreign demand slumps. Immediate resistance can be seen at 0.9684 (61.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 0.9721(9 DMA).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.9614  (50% fib), a break below could take the pair towards 0.9500 (30th March low).

USD/JPY: The dollar rose against the yen on Tuesday amid fiscal year-end demand by Japanese companies. Tuesday is the last trading day of Japan’s fiscal year and the end of the quarter for major investors elsewhere, which has fueled some volatility as big currency market players closed their books. The bulk of those positioning changes caused the dollar to strengthen. Against a basket of six other currencies, the dollar rose 0.4%to 99.5. It reached 102.99, its highest in more than three years, earlier this month as a global market selloff fuelled a rush for dollars. Strong resistance can be seen at 108.66 (6.8% fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 109.00 (Psychological level).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 107.56 (50 % fib), a break below could take the pair towards 106.46 (38.2 % fib). 

Equities Recap

European stocks rose on Tuesday as strong Chinese factory data held out hope for an economic revival even as much of the rest of the world shut down to fight the coronavirus.

At (GMT 13:33),UK's benchmark FTSE 100 was last trading up at 0.34 percent, Germany's Dax was up by 0.12 percent, France’s CAC finished was up by 0.06 percent.

Commodities Recap

Gold dropped as much as 2.4% on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened and strong Chinese economic data boosted risk appetite, but bullion was heading for a sixth straight quarterly rise amid fears over a global shutdown due to the coronavirus.

Spot gold was down 1.4% at $1,599.90 per ounce by 1155 GMT. It has gained more than 5% for the quarter, and about 1% this month. U.S. gold futures fell 1.8% to $1,613.90.

Oil prices firmed on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to talks aimed at stabilising energy markets, with benchmarks climbing off 18-year lows hit as the coronavirus outbreak cut fuel demand worldwide.

Brent crude was up 87 cents, or 3.8%, at $23.63 a barrel by 1106 GMT after closing on Monday at $22.76, its lowest finish since November 2002.

U.S. crude was up $1.45, or 7.2%, at $21.54 a barrel after settling in the previous session at $20.09, its lowest since February 2002.

Treasury Recap

Italian government bond yields were steady before an auction of debt, amid hopes the country’s efforts to contain the spread of the coronavirus may be starting to work.

Italy’s benchmark 10-year yields dropped three basis points to 1.46%, half what they were on March 18, when panic over impact of the disease was at its peak.
 


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